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Showing posts from March, 2020

Contracting Triangle formation in Progress. Minor Pull back expected before going down.

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Nifty in counter-trend wave pattern between 7500-9100 range.
This counter-trend wave taking  "contracting triangle formation", to complete this triangle formation, one minor pull back to 8900-9100 possible before taking downward momentum.
Hence, today expected to be in positive territory and can test anywhere between 8900-9100 zone.
As we all know that counter-trend wave means a temporary pause in a major trend.
After completing the counter-trend move, Major trend resumes, which downtrend.
Hence, use this bounce to exit some of the long positions or book profits in long positions which were bought at recent lower levels.
This is certainly not the right to fresh investments.
Trade Accordingly.
Resistance 8900-9000-9100.
Supports 7700-7500.

Regards,
Suryadev Bandari
Research Analyst




Down trend to resume again. Do not fall in Bull Trap.

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Nifty achieved our previous downside target zone 7700-7500.
From there it bounced back to 8700+ today.
As per the updated data, this bounce is in corrective pattern only.
Its a Bull trap. Bulls should avoid falling in this trap. This bounce is short term only.
Down trend to resume again and it can break 7500 levels too.

Stay Cautious.

Investors need to wait for some time.
If possible, short sellers can initiate fresh shorts in Index with stoploss above 9100 lvels.
This is for High risk traders only. Nifty daily range become huge so both risk and rewards also huge.
Trade Accordingly.

Today is March Series FnO expiry, so we can see huge volatility in Market.
Market taking short breath only. Bears strikes again.

Avoid fresh long positions.
Its a sell on rally market, But due to restrictions on short selling, not everybody can short sell in this market. Conditions apply.

Resistance 9000-9100.
Downside levels 7700-7500.

Regards,
Suryadev Bandari
Research Analyst


Be ready for deep crash. 7700-7500 possible.

Be ready for new lows. Unfortunate for day traders, SEBI imposed restrictions on short selling. A trader can take short selling positions only limited to his  stock holdings as per current market value. If you dont holding stocks in deemat, you are not eligible for short selling at all. Means, SEBI allowing only hedging opportunities for those who already owned stocks. Those who already bought and holding put options or carrying short selling on Friday, they can have choice to carry or exit only. New positions not allowed.
Today possibly we may witness lower circuite. As more negative news spreading related to Covid-19, this crash can continue some more days 
New investors accumulated capital and wait for good opportunity to begin investment.
Regards, Suryadev Bandari Research Analyst.

Bears can strike again and nifty can crash to 7700-7500 levels.

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Short seller's market. Sell on Every Rise. Traders Market.

Last Friday, Nifty made new low 8555 and from there witnessed bounce back in the form of counter trend wave.
From 10150, Next leg of selloff  Impulsive down wave has begun. yesterday , as we expected in last update, nifty recorded new low 7840. Due to Weekly options settlement and in minor counter trend wave it bounced to 9575 level but failed to sustain above it.
As per classical Technical Analysis, Rule of Polarity says that Support once breaks it becomes Resistance.
It proved again yesterday.
8555-8600 zone now acts as resistance levels.
Yesterday's low 7840 now vulnerable to break down again and new lows possible.
Significant levels to watch on downside are 7700-7500.
By Observing market momentum, we can easily get the clue that Every Bounce getting soldoff.
Sell on Rally market.
New investors need to stay on sideways till market correction finished.
This is traders market, especially short sellers market.

Nifty dai…

5th wave down has started. Be prepared for nose dive.

As per the updated wave count,  5th Impulsive down wave has started in market. Nifty can breakdown 8000 mark. Avoid bottom fishing. Bottom has not made yet.Protect capital. Do not average in lossing stocks. This is falling knife. Do not try to catch it. Go with the flow.  This momentum favors short selling traders. This crash very different from 2008's. Small and midcaps already bleeded. Now large caps started bleeding. Large cap stock can bleed more on downside.  Short sellers still find shorting opportunity in large caps. Choose stock wisely. Next downside target 8000.
Regards, Suryadev Bandari Research Analyst

New lows possible. stay alert.

Nifty facing selling pressure at every bounce.
Buying support not visible at lower levels.
Global news and Fear of COVID-19 dragging markets lower.
Nifty failed to hold above 9500 and drifted lower even below 9000 levels.
Now it appears that wave 5 impulsive down wave dragging markets lower levels, 8600-8500 possible.  Unless nifty moves above 9100 level, this selling pressure likely to continue.
Avoid fresh long positions till the dust is settled.
Risk is high on both sides.
trade accordingly.
Regards,
Suryadev Bandari
Research Analyst

Wide range. Wild Moves. Big Risk. Big Opportunity.

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Wide range. Wild Moves.
Friday nifty witnessed lower circuit first and then rebound from 8555 to 10159 level.
1600 points wild move in a single day. Unimaginable range for intraday. Once in life time move. Great opportunity for those who track technicals keenly. These kind of moves tests ability of Analysts. Hard for average traders. Big opportunity comes with bigger risks.
Risk averted traders can step aside from markets. These kind of wild moves to repeat in future also but range may differ.
Elliott Wave Principle perspective, Wave 3 down has finished at 8555, wave4 start from there. wave 4 and wave 5 formation is still due. That's why we expecting some more volatile moves in short term point of view.
Its not a right time to initiate fresh long positions for investment purpose.
New investor still need to wait for completion of correction.

Intraday point of view,
Nifty range for the day would be 9500-10500 range.
Buy near support zone and sell near resistance zone.
Do not carry positions …

Avoid Emotional trading. Avoid revenge Trading.

Nifty fell from 12440 to 9600 level.Yesterday it broken long term support trendline and closed below it. Intensity of selloff indicating that, this pain likely to continue further. Range for the day rose up to 700-800 points in nifty 2000-2500 points in sensex. Very wild moves, average trader hard to trade. Below 9700, nifyy next crucial retracement levels are 8700 and below that 7500 level. Sgx nifty already trading near 8800 Level.
Secure capital first, without it trader can not do anything.  Normally , average trader takes blind trades in this kind of market. Avoid it. Stay away from market and wait for good opportunity, otherwise, capital loss in the form of stoplosses. Avoid revenge trading. Its hard to stop falling market single handedly. Wait till negative sentiment to erode and wait some time for  normalcy  in markets. In 2009 bull phase begun around 2550 level and top made around 12440. 38% retracement level already broken. 50% retracement at 7500. We shall see whether this panic selling…

Impulsive down wave still in formation. Avoid longs till it complete formation.

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Impulsive down wave still in force. Avoid longs till it complete its formation.
One minor wave down is still pending to complete  impulsive down wave.
As per the latest data, 3rd impulsive down wave still in force and one minor inner wave down is pending to complete. 
It can fall to anywhere between 10200-9950.
10000-9950 is strong support for Nifty.
Volatility rose to 31.56. 
We can observe that from past one month, we witnessed sharp moves in market. Wild swings changing direction very fast. Catching these kind of wild swings are very tough to analysts and impossible to normal traders.
Elliott Wave Principle Helping me to catch these wild swings most of the time.
Now come to current scenario, there is one more minor down wave is due and after that rebound can resume as part of counter trend wave.

Major trend is still downside. Any bounce is counter trend only.

Traders can utilize these wild swings as best trading opportunity as these swings range is huge between 150-400 points range.  Entry a…

Market Consolidating at lower levels. Bulls can step in anytime.

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Bulls can stage back and can lift market higher.
Monday nifty witnessed severe down fall due to global markets and Domestic bad events.
Intraday it fell down to 10295 and later managed to close above 10450 level.
As of Now, Impulsive down wave from 12240 to 10295 almost finished.
From here, we can expect decent pull back rally towards 10500+ levels.
Nifty has strong support at 10200-10000 zone.
Option Chain Data also suggesting that nifty has strong support at this zone.
Hence, short term traders can initiate fresh long positions between 10280-10350 zone for higher levels target.
Globally, Crude prices also recovering from multi year low levels. Market can take cue and surge higher. Intensity of bad news slowly fading out. Sentiment can improve slowly.

Resistance 10700-10600-10500
Supports 10300-10200-10000.

Regards,
Suryadev Bandari
Research Analyst



market breaking crucial supports. stat away fro. it for awhile.

Nifty broken 10500-10400 support zone easily.Selling pressure intensified. Step aside and wait for next clear signal.

Nifty near support zone. 10500-10600. Minor pull back rally can begin anytime.

Nifty witnessed huge gap down opening today.
Sudden fall in Crude prices and Global market selloff are major reasons for this.
For the short term point of view, nifty trading near important support zone 10500-10600.
On Upside nifty facing resistance 10800-11000 zone.
Hence, Avoid aggressive short selling.
Markets already oversold and any time technical pull back rally possible from current levels.
Options data suggesting that,  10500 strong support for today. This level may not be break.
Long positions can be initiated for intraday bounce, keep stoploss below 10480-10460 levels.
Banknifty options data suggesting that 26500-26600 strong support zone.

Avoid fresh short selling as long as nifty trades above 10500 spot level.
Regards,
Suryadev Bandari
Research Analyst

Cover short positions. Bounce possible from current levels.

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Cover short positions. Bounce Possible from current levels.

As mentioned in last forecast, nifty completed minor down wave today at 10840 around.
From here, counter trend move can begin and nifty can bounce from current leve 10900 towards 11200-11300+ levels.
Avoid short selling at current levels as Technical indicators showing Bullish Divergences.
Option data also suggesting that 10800 level acts as support for short term and Bulls can step in to initiate fresh long positions for short term.
Impulsive down wave which was started from 12246 has appeared to be completed today and counter wave in form of Bounce can be start any time from here.
This is good opportunity for traders those who which to initiate long positions for limited upside.
Keep strict stoploss below 10740 zone for long positions.
Every dip can attract buying support from Bulls.
Trade accordingly.

Regards,
Suryadev Bandari
Research Analyst

Book profits in Long positions. Major down trend can resume anytime.

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As expected nifty almost completed sideways range bound momentum today.
Previously 11450-11550 levels expected as upside target of counter trend move, But as per latest data and latest chart pattern, upside appears to be limited to 11375-11400 zone only.
Hence, those who initiated long positions at lower levels around 11100-11150 zone, Book full profits in Long positions.
As mentioned earlier, Major trend is down and this bounce is part of counter trend.
As major down trend can resume anytime.
Book profits in Long positions and Avoid building fresh long positions.
Option data analysis showing that 11400 appears to be strong resistance for this week.
11200 appears to be highest open interest in Put options.
Hence, today's range for Nifty is 11400-11200.
Risky traders can initiate fresh shorts at higher levels. Keep stoploss at higher levels.

Regards,
Suryadev Bandari
Research Analyst

Avoid Aggressive Short Selling. Initiate long positions on every dip.

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Impulsive downwave in Nifty temporarily halted.
Minor Bounce can be expected from 11000-11200 zone towards 11500-11600 in coming days.
Cover short sell positions and Short term traders can initiate fresh long positions on every dip.
Buy on Dip market.
Technical indicatorst to show Bullish Divergence formations.
Market in over sold and preparing for short covering rally.
Hence, avoid fresh short selling.
World markets too taking breath from sharp selloff.
For next coming few days, markets to trade in range bound.
Range is huge, so stoploss also at distance, i.e, risk is high. Hence, wait for nice dip and initiate longs at support zone. Book near resistance zone.
Resistance 11400-11550-11625.
Supports 11200-11100-11030.
Regards,
Suryadev Bandari
Research Analyst
www.earningwave.com